Why the Swiss Franc Danced While the Ruble Stumbled: The Currency Tale of 2025

In a year marked by diplomatic theatrics and economic curveballs, one chart tells a silent story: RUBCHF has slipped 9.1% over just three months. What pushed Russia’s currency to a waltz with gravity while the Swiss franc pirouetted in place? Let’s decode the choreography of currencies in the shadow of geopolitics and policy pivots.

The Ruble’s Glass Floor: When Resilience Meets Reality

At first glance, the Russian ruble looked like the world’s champion. By June 2025, it had clocked a 25% gain against the dollar year-to-date—grabbing headlines as the best-performing currency. But the applause masked a shifting stage. By August, the Bank of Russia warned of a potential 20% depreciation before year-end, and the cracks began to show: in the first half of 2025, Russia’s current account surplus shrank to $25 billion from $42.1 billion a year earlier, a drop of 40.6%.

Behind the curtain, the mechanics were exposed. The Bank of Russia began slashing its key rate from 21% to 18% between June and July—a 300 basis point cut in two months—as inflation risks eased but economic headwinds mounted. That policy pivot sent a clear message: capital controls were relaxing, and the ruble’s artificial rigidity was giving way to market forces. A currency that soared on controls and a fleeting export windfall now faced a tide turning against it.

Swiss Franc: The Still Lake Reflecting Global Storms

While the ruble’s fortunes see-sawed, the Swiss franc embodied tranquility. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate to 0% in July 2025, but the move was more about keeping the economic engine warm than fighting fires. Inflation hovered at a gentle 0.2%—core inflation at 0.8%—while GDP grew a modest 1.3%. The SNB’s doctrine of price stability under 2% per year meant the franc remained a magnet for global capital in times of turbulence.

In moments of geopolitical tremor—like the Trump-Putin Alaska summit or the specter of renewed nuclear brinkmanship—investors instinctively reached for the Swiss franc’s safe-haven glow. Even as the U.S. dollar wobbled and traditional correlations faltered, the CHF’s role as a shelter became more pronounced, reinforcing its strength against risk-prone peers.

Oil, Sanctions, and the Ruble’s Mirage

The ruble’s fate is welded to the price of oil. In August, Brent crude hovered at $66.84—down 2.4% from its three-month average. Russia’s budget depends on oil and gas for roughly 30% of revenue, and with energy receipts underperforming and sanctions tightening, fiscal cracks widened: the budget deficit ballooned to 4.9 trillion rubles, forcing the government to dip into its reserves and borrow domestically.

Western sanctions, now in their twelfth year, continued to sap Russia’s access to international capital and technology. The Trump administration’s new wave of 500% tariffs on Russia-linked goods, and the threat of secondary sanctions, rattled markets and kept the ruble under siege. Even Russia’s foreign exchange reserves—hovering near record highs at $688 billion in June—couldn’t fully shield the currency from the slow bleed of confidence and trade flows.

The Macro Mosaic: Currency Wars and Safe Havens

This is not a simple story of two currencies, but of two worlds. The ruble is a battleground for sanctions, energy shocks, and political theater. The Swiss franc, by contrast, is the beneficiary of global uncertainty, a currency strengthened not by domestic growth but by the world’s fear and longing for stability.

In April’s global tariff shock, the usual rules of safe-haven flows temporarily inverted, but the franc’s reputation endured. Foreign funds continued to seek the quiet harbor of Switzerland, even as the U.S. dollar faltered and Treasury yields oscillated. The ruble, battered by falling oil, a shrinking current account, and the unwinding of emergency capital controls, found little respite.

Encore: Why the Curtain Fell on RUBCHF

The 9.1% slide in RUBCHF over three months is the sum of these moving parts: a Russian currency losing its scaffolding as oil prices slipped, fiscal pressures deepened, and the policy regime loosened its grip. The Swiss franc, meanwhile, did not need to sprint—standing still was enough as the rest of the world tripped over its own shoelaces.

In the theater of global FX, sometimes the loudest movement is the quiet exit—and in 2025, it was the ruble leaving the stage, leaving the franc alone in the spotlight.